New Approaches to Discrete Choice and Time-Series Cross-Section Methodology for Political Research
by Kropko, Jonathan, Ph.D., THE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL, 2011, 150 pages; 3464986

Abstract:

This dissertation consists of three projects which focus on methods, with direct applications to American and comparative politics, and are intended to either advance researchers' understanding of existing methods or to help develop new methods for political science research. These works focus generally on two methodological areas: discrete choice modeling and time-series cross-section (TSCS) methodology. In chapter 1 I conduct Monte Carlo simulations to compare multinomial logit (MNL), multinomial probit (MNP), and mixed/random parameters logit (MXL) on 7 criteria, including the accuracy of coefficient point estimates. Simulated data represent a range of violations of the independence of irrelevant alternatives (IIA) assumption, and show that MNL nearly always provides more accurate coefficients than MNP and MXL, even when the IIA assumption is severely violated. In chapter 2 a new method, called the between effects estimation routine (BEER), is developed to maximize information from TSCS data to model the cross-sectional effects while allowing these effects to change over time. This method is applied to two examples. First, it is used to analyze the variation in regional authority and federalism in 21 countries over 54 years. Second, it is used to reconsider the effect of income on state voting in US presidential elections. In chapter 3 I develop a method to estimate a non-linear logistic regression with survey weights which uses Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation. To demonstrate the utility of the method, I consider a voting model for U.S. presidential general elections which is non-linear, and addresses a long-standing theoretical debate in the study of American elections regarding the moderating role of personal importance on the effect of issue evaluations on the vote.

 
AdviserGeorge Rabinowitz
SchoolTHE UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT CHAPEL HILL
SourceDAI/A 72-11, p. , Sep 2011
Source TypeDissertation
SubjectsStatistics; Political Science
Publication Number3464986
Adobe PDF Access the complete dissertation:
 

» Find an electronic copy at your library.
  Use the link below to access a full citation record of this graduate work:
  http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl%3furl_ver=Z39.88-2004%26res_dat=xri:pqdiss%26rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation%26rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:3464986
  If your library subscribes to the ProQuest Dissertations & Theses (PQDT) database, you may be entitled to a free electronic version of this graduate work. If not, you will have the option to purchase one, and access a 24 page preview for free (if available).

About ProQuest Dissertations & Theses
With over 2.3 million records, the ProQuest Dissertations & Theses (PQDT) database is the most comprehensive collection of dissertations and theses in the world. It is the database of record for graduate research.

The database includes citations of graduate works ranging from the first U.S. dissertation, accepted in 1861, to those accepted as recently as last semester. Of the 2.3 million graduate works included in the database, ProQuest offers more than 1.9 million in full text formats. Of those, over 860,000 are available in PDF format. More than 60,000 dissertations and theses are added to the database each year.

If you have questions, please feel free to visit the ProQuest Web site - http://www.proquest.com - or call ProQuest Hotline Customer Support at 1-800-521-3042.