There is a crisis in America today – producing U.S. science, technology, engineer, and mathematician (STEM) graduates from American higher education. The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of confidence in mathematics and academic abilities on freshmen STEM major choice. This study analyzed three research questions: the effect of confidence in mathematics ability on STEM major choice, the effect of confidence in academic ability on STEM major choice, and the combined effect of confidence in mathematics and academic abilities on STEM major choice. This study used extant survey data from the Higher Education Research Institute, Cooperative Institutional Research Program, 2003 Freshman Survey for U.S. citizen first-time, full-time, undergraduate students as they matriculating into four-year universities and colleges. Descriptive statistics, bivariate correlation analysis, and multiple logistic regression techniques were used to analyze the data at a .05 significance level. This study used the Lent, Brown, and Hackett Career/Academic Choice Model as its theoretical framework to describe academic major choices. This model supports Bandura's Social Cognitive Theory, which posits that self-efficacy and outcome expectations influence interest and aspirations for academic major and career choices. Study findings indicate that confidence in mathematics ability, parental STEM occupation, composite SAT scores, gender (female), and minority (Latino or African American) greatly influence student STEM major choice. Students that reported “highest 10%” rating of mathematics confidence were 20 times more likely to choose a STEM major. Students with parents who had a STEM occupation were 1.5 times more likely to choose a STEM major. Minority students were 1.3 times more likely to choose a STEM major. Female students were 2.4 times less likely to choose a STEM major. Study findings suggest that educators need to adopt strategies that build not only basic mathematics and academic skill development but also strategies that build confidence in mathematics abilities to positively influence undergraduate STEM major choice. These results suggest that current national education policies that focus on minimum skill attainment do not solely stimulate STEM graduate production. It is the development of confidence in mathematics abilities in conjunction with those skills that motivates STEM major choice.