The current research analyzes a set of survey data to determine what factors best predict the educational success of young African-Americans. Examining a national sample of 1,176 African-American students taken from the National Educational Longitudinal Study 1988-2000 (NELS), the following research examines three constructs that are associated with educational attainment: (1) Family Structure and Social Status, (2) Parental and Peer Influence, and (3) Social Bonding. Logistic regression modeling is used to illustrate which of the three constructs has the most predictive strength in assessing educational achievement levels of young African-Americans.

In this study the construct of Family Structure and Social Status includes variables reflective of parental marital status, number of siblings, family income, parent education, and the availability of educational resources in the home. The construct measuring parental and peer influence includes variables reflective of the student's interaction with their parents and friends. The Social Bonding construct has been developed from a reformulation of Hirschi's social bonding theory to redirect the focus of analysis providing a theoretical context to predict which African-American youth will exhibit positive educational trajectories. Several variables have been selected that reflect the four components of social bonding: attachment, belief, commitment, and involvement.

Though several factors contributing to the successful completion of high school differ from those that lead to the successful completion of a four-year degree, the results of this study convincingly demonstrate that, of the three constructs under study, Social Bonding emerges as the most robust predictor of educational success among young African-American students.