Exchange-rate-based-stabilization in the Middle East: 2000--2001 Turkish ERBS Program
by Aytac, Ozlem, Ph.D., INDIANA UNIVERSITY, 2008, 162 pages; 3332467

Abstract:

The empirical regularities observed in exchange-rate-based-stabilization programs generated an extensive literature regarding the effects of disinflation programs on real consumption and output. The literature however, has focused almost exclusively in Latin America. I depart from the existing literature by developing a model specifically for the 2000-2001 exchange-rate-based stabilization program in Turkey: When the government lowers the rate of crawl, the rate of domestic credit creation is set equal to the lower rate of crawl, bond sales finance the fiscal deficit, and money growth occurs only through capital inflows. The private sector consumes both durable and nondurable goods in the model, domestic and foreign currencies are imperfect substitutes, and prices are sticky. I assume that the initial fiscal adjustment accompanying the reduction in the rate of crawl is not enough to support a permanently lower crawl rate. Thus, the public knows from the outset that the program is flawed and will be abandoned at some point. What I aimed with this model is to replicate the real effects observed in the aftermath of the program in Turkey. Results show that the model can successfully account for the responses of consumption, current account balance and real exchange rate both qualitatively and quantitatively.

 
AdviserEdward F. Buffie
SchoolINDIANA UNIVERSITY
SourceDAI/A 69-09, p. , Dec 2008
Source TypeDissertation
SubjectsEconomics; Economic theory
Publication Number3332467
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