The foundations of conditional probability
by Easwaran, Kenneth Krishnan, Ph.D., UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY, 2008, 124 pages; 3331592

Abstract:

In this dissertation I propose a theory of conditional probability suitable for the interpretation of probability as degree of belief. I first argue that different interpretations of probability must have different mathematical accounts, and then consider both what conditional degree of belief is, and what general form a mathematical theory of it must take. In particular, I suggest that the way to reason about the mathematical formalism is by looking at the uses of conditional probability, in particular in confirmation theory. In Chapter 5, I motivate the central problem that my account of conditional probability addresses, which is that the traditional mathematical account of conditional probability occasionally requires dividing by zero. I then consider alternate approaches to this problem, but reject them because of a series of constraints that I argue any theory of conditional degree of belief must meet. In Chapter 8 I give my positive account, according to which conditional degree of belief must be taken (at least sometimes) to be a relative notion, rather than an absolute one. Where traditional accounts say that it is a function of two propositions, I argue that it depends also on which set of alternatives to the conditioning proposition is relevant. This is a radical proposal, but I argue that in all standard uses of conditional probability, it poses no new problems, because the relevant set of alternatives is specified by the context.

 
AdviserBranden Fitelson
SchoolUNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, BERKELEY
SourceDAI/A 69-09, p. , Dec 2008
Source TypeDissertation
SubjectsMathematics; Philosophy; Statistics
Publication Number3331592
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