Consumer decisions depend on predictions of how situational and experiential factors will influence choice and consumption, particularly when a product or service is consumed over time or purchased at one time and consumed at another. These predictions are often based on consumers' lay theories. Despite that lay theories have been shown to affect judgments and behavior in a number of domains, the interplay between lay theories and consumer decision-making has not been systematically studied in marketing.

In two essays, I explore how consumers make choices in the face of valid and invalid lay theories about changes in product enjoyment over time (Essay 1) as well as the dynamics of sequential choice processes (Essay 2). I find that inaccurate and accurate lay theories can both give rise to prediction errors and suboptimal choices. Specifically, Essay 1 shows that consumers often fail to predict hedonic adaptation to products and that this prediction error arises not because of erroneous beliefs about changes in product enjoyment over time, but rather because of a failure to spontaneously consider adaptation and apply largely correct intuitive beliefs about adaptation. I further show that these beliefs, once cued, systematically influence consumer choice. In Essay 2, I examine when and why a depletion mechanism causes earlier choices in a sequence to influence subsequent choices between a vice (e.g. lowbrow movie) and a virtue (e.g. highbrow movie). I show that making trade-offs is at the root of the depletion effects arising from choice and the larger the trade-offs in a preceding choice, the more pronounced effect that choice has on subsequent choices. However, I find that individuals do not have accurate lay theories that making choices can induce depletion of self-control resources and therefore fail to predict depletion-based interactions between successive choices.

My findings contribute to the understanding of the interplay between consumers' intuitive theories, judgments, and decision-making and provide important implications for consumer well-being.