Abstract:

The landscape of North China has been transformed over the past quarter century. Overall figures show that China is losing millions of hectares of farmland and forests, thereby adding hundreds of millions of tons to the global carbon cycle and contributing to global climate change. Faced with threats to environmental sustainability and food security, the Chinese government has put forth policies to control land use change, protecting forests and farmland while limiting urban expansion. To evaluate the prospects for success of such policies, this study explores the spatial contexts in which urbanization continues to take place, testing the hypothesis that urban growth is structured by the economic geography of urban systems. Evidence of urban growth from Defense Meteorological Satellite Program and Landsat imagery is analyzed through Skinner's Hierarchical Regional Space model for contemporary China. Indicators of urban importance are developed from satellite imagery and census data and compared for the ability to predict rates of urban expansion. A composite model integrating these indicators, regional systems indices, and changes in the transport network is developed to explain urban growth in North China during the 1990s. Case studies detail local variations within macroregional trends. The study concludes that conflicts between current policies regarding land conservation and economic development, especially highway construction, do little to control continued urban expansion, and suggests steps that can be taken to align local interests with the national and global benefits of land conservation.