The species distribution model DISTRIB was used to model and map potential suitable habitat of ponderosa pine throughout Arizona under current and six future climate scenarios. Importance Values for each climate scenario were estimated from 24 predictor variables consisting of climate, elevation, soil, and vegetation data within a 4 km grid cell. Two emission scenarios, (A2 (high concentration) and B1 (low concentration)) and three climate models (the Parallel Climate Model, the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, and the HadleyCM3) were used to capture the potential variability among future climates and provide a range of responses from ponderosa pine. Summary tables for federal and state managed lands show the potential change in suitable habitat under the different climate scenarios; while an analysis of three elevational regions explores the potential shift of habitat upslope.

According to the climate scenarios, mean annual temperature in Arizona could increase by 3.5% while annual precipitation could decrease by 36% over this century. Results of the DISTRIB model indicate that in response to the projected changes in climate, suitable habitat for ponderosa pine could increase by 13% throughout the state under the HadleyCM3 high scenario or lose 1.1% under the average of the three low scenarios. However, the spatial variability of climate changes will result in gains and losses among the ecoregions and federally and state managed lands. Therefore, alternative practices may need to be considered to limit the loss of suitable habitat in areas identified by the models.