An analysis of housing price trends in South Korea: Bubbles or fundamentals? An emprirical study from 1986 to 2007
by Kang, In-Joung, M.S., UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA, RENO, 2007, 69 pages; 1451074

Abstract:

Many housing market observers have worried that housing prices in Korea have grown too quickly since the early part of this century, and that prices are now too high relative to economic fundamentals. Particularly, housing prices in Seoul and Gangnam have been a salient issue in the mass media lately, and it has stimulated a great curiosity about whether there is a large bubble. To address this issue, I take three main approaches: the housing price-to-income ratio (PIR), the housing price-to rent ratio (PRR), and two OLS regression models. From the ratio approaches, I find that the housing price-to-rent ratio is above its long-term average in the same two areas, Seoul and the Gangnam district, shown to be overpriced by the housing price-to-income ratios. However, the ratios have not reached their historical peaks and are rather far below these levels, indicating overvaluation but by a small amount. In the final approach, I construct two OLS regression models to verify whether other factors are also useful in explaining the changes in housing prices by affecting the supply and demand for housing-especially in the four most highly appreciated markets. I observe that although an increase in housing prices has not been driven solely by the speculative motives, the coefficient estimates of the growth rate of past housing prices account for a small portion of the rapidly growing housing prices. In summary, even though a large bubble does not exist in the Korean housing markets, I find that a small housing bubble may exist.

 
AdviserShunfeng Song
SchoolUNIVERSITY OF NEVADA, RENO
SourceMAI/ 46-04, p. , Apr 2008
Source TypeThesis
SubjectsEconomics
Publication Number1451074
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