Application of classical versus Bayesian statistical methods to on-line radiological monitoring
by Attardo, Amy M., M.S., CLEMSON UNIVERSITY, 2007, 176 pages; 1441601

Abstract:

The on-line monitoring for illicit radioactive material with a minimum number of false detections is a critical need for homeland security; however, low signal-to-noise ratios make distinguishing between a transient radiation source and static natural background particularly difficult. The primary objectives of this work were to apply both Bayesian and classical statistical process control chart techniques to the on-line monitoring of radiological data and to then compare the Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) error incidence rates. The Shewhart (3-sigma) and cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts were the classical procedures adopted, while the Bayesian technique employed was the Shiryayev-Roberts (S-R) control chart. Because on-line environmental monitoring does not allow for corrective action following an out-of-control signal, two versions of the CUSUM and S-R procedures known as total reset and alarm reset methods were developed that differ only in the manner in which test statistics are reset subsequent to an alarm. In addition, the S-R total reset method was modified to account for a delay in response before and after an out-of-control signal. The best method in terms of the minimization of Type I errors was the S-R total reset method followed by the 3-sigma and CUSUM total reset methods. In terms of Type II errors, the CUSUM alarm reset procedure more readily detected fleeting small changes and intermediate changes in the mean count rate, while the S-R alarm reset control scheme was better suited for detecting small sustained changes. At high count rates, the 3-sigma control chart resulted in the fewest number of false negative detects independent of the amount of time a source was present. Because of the inherent slow response time associated with the S-R method even at high count rates, it was difficult for these methods, as developed in this thesis, to minimize the number of Type II errors when the shift in the mean count rate was great enough for competing methods to detect.

 
AdviserTimothy A. DeVol
SchoolCLEMSON UNIVERSITY
SourceMAI/ 45-04, p. , Jun 2007
Source TypeThesis
SubjectsNuclear physics; Environmental engineering
Publication Number1441601
Adobe PDF Access the complete dissertation:
 

» Find an electronic copy at your library.
  Use the link below to access a full citation record of this graduate work:
  http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl%3furl_ver=Z39.88-2004%26res_dat=xri:pqdiss%26rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation%26rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:1441601
  If your library subscribes to the ProQuest Dissertations & Theses (PQDT) database, you may be entitled to a free electronic version of this graduate work. If not, you will have the option to purchase one, and access a 24 page preview for free (if available).

About ProQuest Dissertations & Theses
With over 2.3 million records, the ProQuest Dissertations & Theses (PQDT) database is the most comprehensive collection of dissertations and theses in the world. It is the database of record for graduate research.

The database includes citations of graduate works ranging from the first U.S. dissertation, accepted in 1861, to those accepted as recently as last semester. Of the 2.3 million graduate works included in the database, ProQuest offers more than 1.9 million in full text formats. Of those, over 860,000 are available in PDF format. More than 60,000 dissertations and theses are added to the database each year.

If you have questions, please feel free to visit the ProQuest Web site - http://www.proquest.com - or call ProQuest Hotline Customer Support at 1-800-521-3042.